AAP got yet another blow, this time from voters of Delhi. Despite predictions, it was shocking to see a party that Wiped off two National Parties in Assembly Elections, struggling to win even as many Seats in MCD.
The defeat might have come now, but its seeds were sown much earlier. There are three main reasons for this Modi, Media and Madness.
All these factors are result of a churn that India is going through, as far as aspirations of Voters is concerned.
Modi Factor:
No point standing in front of a speeding train was my advised to the State Leaders in 2014.
After huge success of Anna Movement, everyone thought AAP would benefit from it, but it was Modi who swept LokSabha elections. Voters Trusted Modi for Talking about his track record, while AAP could show only Promises.
As a smart political start-up, AAP created its own “Blue Ocean” by reaching out to voters directly with promises of corruption free governance. They swept Delhi with 67/70, thanks to thousands of Volunteers who could win voters trust.
Now, instead of working on delivering promises, they started dreaming of winning more states. To get support of Minority communities and also to bring themselves on par with BJP, they started attacking Modi.
That backfired, as by now Modi had accumulated considerable amount of mind share of Indian Voters, despite his promises turning out to be Jhoomlas.
Emerging as the most popular Indian PM across the globe, he went on to win many more state elections. Whatever may be the reason for his popularity, attacking him invited ire of millions of Voters, who retaliated on social media, breaking state boundaries.
That created negative sentiments against AAP, which was too difficult to overcome.
War of Perceptions, can never be won by cutting opponents short, but by growing yourself.
Course Correction:
Contrary to popular belief, Modi wave that swept 2014 elections was created by frustrations of Voters. People were furious with Minority appeasement, Caste base agendas, lack of development and above all highly corrupt practices. Modi didn’t create the wave; he just rode it to victory (regardless of Jhoomla or not).
All that AAP needs to do is focus on delivering promises in Delhi and showcase that as their achievements. AAP should learn lesson from 2014 debacle; it just doesn’t have the bandwidth.
Instead of bad mouthing Modi & his policies, they should focus on adding more bandwidth by finding & developing new leaders, across India. That is the only way to fight brand Modi.
Media Flip-Flop:
Those who live by the Media; Die by it.
Here we are talking about two types of Media: Traditional (Print / TV) & Social (Facebook / WhatsApp). While the traditional Media has boundaries like Editions & Channels, the Social media is universal with global impact.
AAP was born after hugely successful Anna Hazare Campaign at Ramlila Maidan. It got overnight success thanks to huge media coverage that sensationalized its promises of providing a Corruption Free Governance. Delhi Voters elected them, expecting reduction in pain & prices of essential services like Power & Water. But, with success, Arrogance & Ambitions set in.
The governance of AAP in Delhi was not as spectacular as splashed by the Media before elections. They did fulfil promises, but Media wanted more Sensational Actions for its TRP.
Instead of showing actions taken, Media was showing AAP’s Jung with Lt. Governor & Central Govt. A lot of negativity was broadcasted by national news Channels, which slowly reflected on Social Media too.
But, that is just one part of the story!
Prestitutes?
Due to its capacity to influence voters, all political parties try to control TV & Print Media. In India too news channels belonging to Marans, Roys, Ambani & Adani have shown biased programs, benefiting their political masters, rightly earning the name Presstitutes!
This got verified with Indian Media Ranked 136 off 180 Nations, on Freedom Index. Media in an African country (Zimbabwe) run by a dictator gets more freedom than India. Uganda & Afghanistan rank higher than India in the media freedom index.
Social Media!
Social Media came as great relief to counter false propaganda created by biased Media Houses. Anyone can post countering Audio/Video/Pictures evidences and reduce impact of false propaganda. Having come from known sources, they are perceived as more trustworthy.
It was AAP, a party of intellectuals that gained substantial ground thanks to Social Media. This was made possible by its large army of online Volunteers, across India, especially Bangalore.
BJP however, hired substantial number of trollers to attack its opponents on Social Media. The attacks were so ferocious, that one of the victims (Swati) authored a book explaining their modus operandi and names of attackers. In her book, “I am a Troll”, she lists out Trollers who target and abuse Journalists opposing Modi. Some of these Tweeters are followed by Modi.
Course Correction:
Despite BJP’s digital army, AAP had a very positive image on Social Media thanks to dedicated Volunteers who countered every instance of false propaganda, till frustration with AAP set in.
While most Bhakts in BJP’s digital army just add up as soldiers taking orders, most AAP Volunteers are more effective as logical warriors. It was just the numbers on AAP’s side that has been dwindling due to lack of enthusiasm, thanks to infighting & volunteer apathy.
All that AAP Needs to do to win Social Media War is setup a decent Grievance Redressal Mechanism and provide Sincere Volunteers some pride to fight for. That will help lots of Volunteers to return, at least virtually and fight from its side.
Like Modi countered hostile media in Gujrat with on the Ground Supporters & Digital Army, AAP too can Win Traditional & Social Media battles provided its Army of Volunteers fight .
Unless AAP sorts out its internal Squabble and provides a decent Judiciary to its Volunteers, fighting any battle with BJP either physically or virtually is impossible.
The Madness:
Someone asked Lord Vishnu, “What do you eat?” He said my food is “Ahankaar”.
It’s shear madness, that a party so popular, growing at such scorching speed, doing the right things, making the right promises, giving enormous hopes to Indian Voters, went down as fast as it rose.
Most crucial reason for AAP to lose its momentum is not Modi or Media; it’s their inability to manage growth of popularity & people.
Enough has been written about their madness along with advises, both on Traditional & Social Media. But for all those to work they have to do just One most important correction!
Stop fooling Yourself, Volunteers & Voters! In that order.
Course Correction:
AK may be feeling like on a “Sher Ki Sawari”, fearing for his life as soon as he gets down. But, things are not as bad as they look from there. Political Opponents are not for his life, they want to see him defeated not killed. Common sense will prevail as soon as Paranoia is gone.
Barring a few Crooks, they are a smart & dedicated team of people. They have got the party so far and can take it to much more heights. All they need to do is get Honest and avoid brushing things under the carpet.
Once serious about salvaging their future, the first thing they need to do is set up a working Grievance redressal system. No organization survives without internal Judiciary. Volunteers are your eyes & ears, without their inputs, you will lose direction. Don’t take them for granted.
Reluctance of AK in talking to anyone with Grievance is the weakest link of his leadership. There were numerous instances of State Leaders being thrown out, without giving a hearing by AK. He can’t wash off his hands off unpleasant situations, as most people have joined AAP for Arvind and none else. It’s the Volunteers who can complete the crucial Feedback loop.
Volunteers:
Can you run an organization without people? If not, shouldn’t you create an environment, for people to stay, more so when they work for free.
Wasn’t it madness to let arrogant leaders chase away sincere volunteers and replace them with their Chamchas? Why didn’t AAP allow those with grievances to reach out to Delhi?
Why does a leader tell unhappy Volunteers that he owns the place because he is a founder member of the party? How do such leaders manage to appoint their Chamchas as heads of Disciplinary Cell? What solutions do such judicial bodies provide? Unless all this stops,
Volunteers won’t return.
Teams of Maharashtra & Karnataka were chased away by an arrogant leader from Delhi, without any hearing from the National Grievance Cell. What do thousands of Volunteers tell the new recruits about such occurrences? Will they sacrifice their time & money to be
dropped at whims & fancies of an arrogant leader?
AAP needs Volunteers more than otherwise. It’s they who can counter Modi on Street and Media on Internet. Unless Volunteers are given respect, slide of AAP will continue.
Voters:
Social Media revolution has caused a churn in global political system, thanks to a more informed and well connected Voter. Arab spring has brought down many dictators and voter polarization in many countries (including India & US) has given shocking lessons to the entire political class.
It was people associated with AAP who raised Voter’s expectation at Ramlila Maidan along with Anna Hazare. They promised to provide a Non-Corrupt Governance to people of India and were given overwhelming majority in Delhi. All they had to do is perform & showcase that to people.
Instead of commoditizing of Vote Banks, by insisting on fighting only winnable elections, they abandoned a golden opportunity of organic growth. Despite getting donations from across India they didn’t realize that the same Volunteers can help them fight Modi & Media via Social Media.
Dreaming Big is good, but winning small battles does help in a prolonged war in Indian Politics. Had they approached Voters for Municipal Elections across Indian Cities, they would have grown despite defeats.
They should focus on “Changing the Political System”, instead of “winning elections”, as promised.
Conclusion:
Instead of fighting Modi & Blaming Media, they should focus on Satisfying Voters and Respecting Volunteers. AAP needs Volunteers to convince Voters about their ability to provide Corruption Free Development.
As for fighting the False Propaganda, that won’t be needed if Voters & Volunteers are with you.